presented by Chuks Nordi Okonta, CrFA. To SFAFP members online April 27, 2020 .
At end of the course you will be able to
Understand the following.
1- Economic and Financial Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and Households
2- Managing Funds and ensuring Household and Community Sustainability
3- Economic and Financial Forecast of Post COVID-19
Covid-19 pandemic is respiratory track disease which originated in china
it has affected over 2.8m people as at 25th April 2020 which was declared
pandemic by WHO.
Looking at Economic and financial impact of COVD-19 on businesses and
Households, details of different sectors of the global and local economies.
Some economists suggest that China’s economy may contract for the first
time since the 1970s. Caixin’s purchasing managers index for the services
sector of China’s economy fell to 26.5 in February 2020, the lowest figure
recorded since the survey’s advent in 2005, and car sales dropped 86% in
China in February. As the coronavirus spreads around the world, the stock
markets have experienced their worst crash since 1987. Many countries with
economies, such as Italy, Nigeria and Spain, have enacted quarantine
policies.This has led to the disruption of business activities in many economic sectors.
Financial markets
Economic turmoil associated with the coronavirus pandemic has wide-ranging
and severe impacts upon financial markets, including stock, bond and
commodity (including crude oil and gold) markets. The United Nations
Development Program expects a US$220 billion reduction in revenue in
developing countries, and expects COVID-19’s economic impact could last for
months or even years. Some expect natural gas prices to fall. Here
investors are the victims.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing factories in world has short down dueto covid-19 pandemic.
New vehicle sales in the United States have declined by 40%. The American
Big Three have all shut down their US factories. The German automotive
industry is coming into the crisis after having already suffered from the
Diesel gate-scandal, as well as competition from electric cars. The case is not different in Nigeria.
See chart below –cnbc
China on red curve dropped in February and going up in March because government able to contain covid-19 ;
The arts, entertainment and sport
The arts (general)
The epidemic had a sudden and substantial impact on the arts and cultural
heritage sectors worldwide. The global health crisis and the uncertainly
resulting from it profoundly affected organizations’ operations as well as
individuals – both employed and independent – across the sector. By March
2020, across the world most cultural institutions had been indefinitely
closed (or at least with their services radically curtailed) exhibitions,
events and performances cancelled or postponed. Many individuals
temporarily or permanently lost contracts or employment with varying
degrees of warning and financial assistance available. Equally, financial
stimulus from governments and charities for artists, have provided greatly
differing levels of support, depending on the sector and the country. In
countries such as Australia, where the arts contributed to about 6.4% of
GDP, effects on individuals and the economy have been significant. The
story is not different in Nigeria.
Sport
Most major sporting events were cancelled or postponed, including the 2020
Summer Olympics in Tokyo, which were postponed until 2021 on 24 March 2020,
financial impact of this in Nigeria for instance lose of revenue , price
money, increase of operations. Etc.
Television
The pandemic has shut down or delayed production of television programs
Publishing
The pandemic is predicted to have a dire effect on local newspapers in the
United States, where many were already severely struggling beforehand.
Retail
pandemic has impacted the retail sector. Some countries allowed food retail
shops but with conditions.
Some retailers have employed contactless home delivery pickup for items
purchased through e-commerce sites
Agriculture
farmers have been embracing digital technologies as a way to directly sell
produce, and community-supported agriculture and direct-sell delivery
systems are on the rise. Food insecurity is looming.
Shopping centers around the world responded by reducing hours or closing
down temporarily in response. As of 18 March 2020, the footfall to shopping
centers fell by up-to 30%, with significant impact in every continent
In light of the public health situation in which includes afflicted regions
where retail sectors deemed non-essential have been closed temporary.
Restaurant sector
pandemic has impacted the restaurant business. In the beginning of March
2020, some major cities in the US announced that bars and restaurants would
be closed to sit-down dinners and limited to takeout orders and
delivery. Some employees were fired, and more employees lacked sick leave in
the sector compared to similar sectors. With only carry-out and delivery
services, most servers and bartenders were laid off, prompting these
employees creating “virtual tip jars” across 23 U.S. cities.[91]
Science and technology
The pandemic has impacted productivity of science, space and technology
projects, and to the world’s leading space agencies – including NASA and
the European Space Agency having to halt production of the Space Launch
System, James Webb Space Telescope, and put space science probes into
hibernation or low power mode. Most of both agencies’ field centers have
directed most personnel to telework. The pandemic may have improved
scientific communication or established new forms of it. For instance a lot
of data is being released on preprint servers and is getting dissected on
social Internet platforms and sometimes in the media before entering formal
peer review. Scientists are reviewing, editing, analyzing and publishing
manuscripts and data at record speeds and in large numbers. This intense
communication may have allowed an unusual level of collaboration and
efficiency among scientists.
Tourism
severe effects because tourism depends on travel
quarantine restrictions
fear of airports and other places of mass gathering.
Transportation/Aviation
This section only describes one highly specialized aspect of its associated
subject.
A nearly empty flight from Beijing to Los Angeles during the pandemic
The pandemic has had a significant impact on aviation industry due to the
resulting travel restrictions as well as slump in demand among travelers.
Significant reductions in passenger numbers has resulted in planes flying
empty between airports. and the cancellation flights else plane dying empty.
Unemployment
The International Labor Organization stated on 7 April that it predicted a
6.7% loss of job hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, equivalent
to 195 million full-time jobs. They also estimated that 30 million jobs
were lost in the first quarter alone, compared to 25 million during the
2008 financial crisis.
In January and February 2020, during the height of the epidemic in Wuhan,
about 5 million people in China lost their jobs. Many of China’s nearly 300
million rural migrant workers have been stranded at home in inland
provinces or trapped in Hubei province.
In March 2020, more than 10 million Americans lost their jobs and applied
for government aid. The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs in
the United States and unemployment rate may hit 32%, according to estimates
by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The lockdown in India has left tens of millions of migrant workers
unemployed.
The survey from the Angus Reid Institute found that 44% of Canadian
households have experienced some type of job loss.
Nearly 900,000 workers lost their jobs in Spain since it went into lockdown
in mid-March 2020. During the second half of March, 4 million French
workers applied for temporary unemployment benefits and 1 million British
workers applied for a universal credit scheme. Major cities in Nigeria
Short down this will lead to unemployment.
See chart bellow source-CNBC
Job lost started in China after January as green curve goes down.
Educational impact
A sign on a closed local school because of the coronavirus
The pandemic has affected educational systems worldwide, leading to the
widespread closures of schools and universities. According to data released
by UNESCO on 25 March, school and university closures due to COVID-19 were
implemented nationwide in 165 countries. Including localized closures, this
affects over 1.5 billion students worldwide, accounting for 87% of enrolled
Learners. How will students learn? They are now adopting e learning .
Job lost looming.
Coronavirus and income
Low income individuals are more likely to contract the coronavirus and to
die from it. In both New York City and Barcelona, low income neighborhoods
are disproportionately hit by coronavirus cases. Hypotheses for why this is
the case include that poorer families are more likely to live in crowded
Housing – Lagos (Agejule), Abuja (Maraba ) and work in the low skill jobs,
such as supermarkets and elder care, which are deemed essential during the
crisis. In the United States, millions of low-income people may lack access
to health care due to being uninsured or underinsured. Many low income
workers in service jobs have become unemployed.
Religious impact
A church forced to close because of the coronavirus
The pandemic has impacted religion in various ways, including the
cancellation of the worship services of various faiths, the closure of
Sunday Schools, as well as the cancellation of pilgrimages surrounding
Observances and festivals. Many churches, synagogues, mosques, and temples
Have offered worship through live stream amidst the pandemic. Relief wings
Of religious organizations have dispatched medical supplies and other aid
To affected areas. Adherents of many religions have gathered together to
Pray for an end to the pandemic, for those affected by it, as well as for
The God they believe in to give physicians and scientists the wisdom to
Combat the disease; in the United States, Trump designated 15 March 2020 as
a National Day of Prayer for “God’s healing hand to be placed on the people
of our Nation”.
Social impact
On 18 March 2020, the World Health Organization issued a report related to
mental health and psychosocial issues by addressing instructions and some
social considerations during the COVID-19 outbreak.
Due to doubts if pets or other livestock may pass on coronavirus to
humans, many people were reluctant to keep their pets fearing transmission,
for instance in the Arab World, celebrities were urging people to keep and
protect their pets. Meanwhile, people in the U.K. tended to acquire more
pets during the coronavirus lockdown.
Domestic violence
Many countries have reported an increase in domestic violence and intimate
partner violence attributed to lockdowns amid the coronavirus
pandemic.Financial insecurity, stress, and uncertainty have lead to
increased aggression at home, with abusers able to control large amounts of
their victims’ daily life.United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres
has called for a domestic violence “ceasefire”.
All in all ,most economies in the world survive by taxes, duties, fines,
sales crude/mineral resources. Now that economy is short down. Every
economy now suffers it. Revenue to government will drop , and will rise
soon, This takes us to next topic. Fund management.
Quotes. UN dep. scribe
As the world wrestles with the unprecedented implications of the COVID-19
coronavirus pandemic, “we are facing a human crisis unlike any we have
experienced” and our “social fabric and cohesion is under stress.”
That was the assessment of UN Deputy-Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed during
a digital meeting of the Forum’s COVID Action Platform
<https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-economic-forum-launches-covid-action-platform/> on
8 April.
Fund management during the covid-19
FIG ABOVE – increasing government expenditure while every others declining due to covid-19
The newest update to the brookings-financial times tracking indexes for the global Economic Recovery (TIGER ) shows that, with the coronavirus pandemic, the world now facing the most serious challenge since world war 11 ended. The update says the worst is yet to come.
Since the economy is short down because of dreaded covid-19 a common enemy
to the world. Government announced lockdown. In the light of the above,
corporate bodies, religious bodies, NGOS, individuals. CBN, World Bank,
IMF, EU, countries, politicians… Gave palliatives .for poorest of the
poor-( in Nigeria it was not properly distributed because it is wheel through
political process) , for healthcare development, for isolation centers, for
e-learning. Government has adopted social distancing, wearing of facemasks,
washing of hands, lockdown for one month, food for vulnerable persons,
provide isolation centers, quarantine , in the case of Nigeria despite all
measures put in place the number of persons affected by covid-19 is still
on the increase , despite all these efforts made to cushion the effect
of the lockdown most Nigerians experience hunger, lost of job, pay cut,
death of love one caused by the virus, . the world wait for the vaccine ,
all donations are being tracked.
See Nigeria table showing covid-19 update. 26/4/20 for more information www.ncdc.gov.ng
Households funds management :
This is not the time to invest, buy new furniture and fittings, buy cars,
or marry new wife. This is the time to manage funds in your hands to
provide basic needs, put food on your table, and medicals. borrow if
you don’t have to feed. Have cash around you.
Let us now look at post covid-19.
Economic and Financial Forecast of Post COVID-19
There will be light at the end of the tunnel.
I see opportunities.
The technology sector will boom because going forward all meeting,
conference, offices, education sector, e commerce now use technology to
move ahead. Example Nigeria Governors forum held meeting via video
conference from comfort of their homes.
Production using locally sourced materials will increase.
Our healthcare system will improved with cutting edge technology and state
of arts facilities because there efforts to upgrade hospitals to fight
covid-19
Some coping and survival strategies
- Stay on top of reliable information on covid-19, listen to country Radio and TV to know what government is doing in respect of providing medicals, tax filling payment. Food, etc.
- Build an emergency budget, is not too late to build emergency budget, create it base on your reduced level of income , then outline all your most important expenses(basic needs) because of lockdown your expenses will be less. Example you are not doing entertainment, recreation, daycare, eating out, etc.
- Contact your creditors for loan extensions, revised terms, even reduced interest rates.
- Avoid the temptation of cheap credit, interest rate on loans will low during and after covid-19 do good calculation if you can meet up before accepting credits.
- Protect your mental and physical well-being by thinking well, be positive, avoid excess alcohol, connect with friends, and loved ones by video chat, extent help to less privileges if you can, take free online course, sit with your children and play, fix broken items, and be careful of free cash transfer some are fraudulent.
- Government should reduce cost and improve transparency ,reduce administrative cost, prioritizing the most effective development process to free up more money for health and Education on spending, strengthening anti-corruption institution, to policymakers prepare Nigeria for the future just like Nigeria government has set up economic committee on post covid-19 .
See financial quote .
Covid-19 may have plunged us into a crisis of unprecedented proportions. But, as Winson churchil once admonished, we must never let a crisis go to waste. In the light of above, CBN approved initial #500 billion on medium term for manufacturing firms.world Bank and IMF plans for Africa is to suspend debt repayments in order to provide much-needed support to the poorest countries,also provide debt standstil for Africa, mobilized $57 billion for Africa in 2020 including upwards of $18 billion each for world Bank and IMF to provide front-line health services, support poor and the vulnerable and keep economics afloat. World Bank provides $160 billion in finance support , $55 billion of which will be for Africa over next 15months, to help countries support the poor and vulnerable, business and bolster economic recovery.
Watch video https://youtu.be/CwEdff8sMpY on post covid-19
Financial reporting.
The COVID-19 pandemic crisis and its economic effects mean that investors and other stakeholders need high-quality financial information more than ever.
To this end, accountancy firms, regulators, IFAC member organizations and
others have quickly made available advice and guidance on the accounting
and financial reporting requirements that will need to be considered in
addressing the financial effects of COVID-19 when preparing financial
statements. Many of these resources are conveniently available through
IFAC’s COVID-19 resource center
https://www.ifac.org/knowledge-gateway/series/covid-19-resources-ifacs-network
economic recovery charts bellow-
By forecast the economy will start growing again from second or third quarters of 2020. See chart above
.
Finally, when it comes to surviving a financial crisis, there no shame in asking for help, learning on those you trust, try helping others as best as you can. And the covid-19 is a bigger crisis than most of the world has dealt with in a very long time. We are all in this together. Individual, families, community, business big or small and all levels of healthcare system and government sticking together and helping others out is really the only way we will overcome it successfully.
Thank you.
#stay safe.
27th April, 2020.